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HomeSolitary Pulmonary Nodule Malignancy Risk (Mayo)
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Solitary Pulmonary Nodule Malignancy Risk (Mayo)

years
mm

Clinical Context & Background

The Mayo Clinic model is a widely validated logistic regression model used to estimate the pre-test probability that a solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) detected on imaging is malignant. It helps guide decisions regarding biopsy, resection, or surveillance.
Primary Source EvidenceSwensen SJ, et al. The probability of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules. Application to small radiologically indeterminate nodules. Arch Intern Med. 1997;157(8):849-855.
Formula Logic
Probability = e^x / (1 + e^x), where x is a weighted sum of age, smoking, cancer history, diameter, spiculation, and location.

Reference Data

ProbabilityRisk CategoryTypical Management
< 5%Low RiskSerial CT surveillance
5 - 65%Intermediate RiskPET/CT, Biopsy, or Surveillance
> 65%High RiskSurgical Resection

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