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EORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator

The EORTC risk tables predict recurrence and progression probabilities in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, developed from 2,596 patients across seven EORTC trials.

Purpose:
Estimate 1 and 5-year recurrence and progression risk in NMIBC
Population:
Patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (Ta, T1, CIS)
Factors:
Number of tumours, Tumour size, Prior recurrence rate, T category, CIS presence, Grade
Reference:
Sylvester et al., European Urology 2006
HomeEORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator — Bladder Cancer Recurrence & Progression
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EORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator — Bladder Cancer Recurrence & Progression

Clinical Context & Background

The EORTC risk tables predict the probability of recurrence and progression to muscle-invasive disease in NMIBC patients. It is based on a combined score of 6 factors: Number of tumors, Tumor size, Prior recurrence rate, T-category, CIS, and Grade. Note: These tables often overestimate risk in BCG-treated patients (see CUETO model).
Primary Source EvidenceSylvester RJ, van der Meijden AP, Oosterlinck W, et al. Predicting recurrence and progression in individual patients with stage Ta T1 bladder cancer using EORTC risk tables: a combined analysis of 2596 patients from seven EORTC trials. Eur Urol. 2006;49(3):466-477.
Formula Logic
Sum of points for Recurrence and Progression separately.

Reference Data

Score (Rec / Prog)1-Year Risk5-Year Risk
Recurrence 015%31%
Recurrence 1-424%46%
Recurrence 5-938%62%
Recurrence 10-1761%78%
Progression 00.2%0.8%
Progression 2-61%6%
Progression 7-135%17%
Progression 14-2317%45%

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